International tourism to the United States experienced a significant contraction in July 2025, with total losses of 624,404 visitors representing an 8.9% year-over-year decline. The downturn generated an estimated $2.62 billion in lost spending. A new report by The Kaplan Group analyzed how tourism-dependent cities are facing elevated foreclosure risk due to a decline in tourism.
Key Takeaways
- Total international visitor arrivals to the U.S. dropped by 624,404 in July 2025, representing an 8.9% year-over-year decline.
- The decline in overseas visitors led to an estimated $444 million loss in spending just for July, using a per-visitor benchmark of $4,200.
- Canada represented the steepest single-country drop, sending 614,928 fewer travelers—a 31.1% decrease from the prior year.
- Central America, Mexico and Eastern Europe are the only regions recording a growth in the number of arrivals.
Global Tourism Trends
In July 2025, the United States saw a loss of 624,404 international visitors. In detail, eight regions of the world send fewer visitors to the U.S., recording a total decline for those regions of 743,272 visitors, while Central America, Mexico, and Eastern Europe have seen a combined growth in visitors by 118,868.
The largest absolute decline by country came from Canada, which sent 614,928 fewer visitors compared to the previous year. This represents 82.7% of the loss in international tourists.
Overseas arrivals, excluding Canada and Mexico, dropped by 105,745. This decline translated to an estimated $444 million in lost overseas visitor spending, calculated using a benchmark of $4,200 per overseas visitor, and a total loss of $2.62 billion in all international visitor spending.
Regional Year-over-Year Changes
- Total international: -8.9%
- Mexico: +6.5
- Canada: -31.1%
- Total overseas: -3.1%
- Western Europe: +5.9%
- Eastern Europe: -4.0%
- Asia: -4.9%
- Middle East: -1.4%
- Africa: -10.6%
- Oceania: -9.6%
- South America: -1.3%
- Central America excluding Mexico: +11.8%
- Caribbean: -2.6%
State-Level Tourism Revenue Losses
Missing overseas spending is concentrated in a handful of gateway states, amplifying local credit risk.
Top 10 Losses (July 2025, overseas only)
- California, potential loss $165.2 million
- New York, $53.3 million
- Massachusetts, $34.4 million
- Nebraska, $29.1 million
- Pennsylvania, $12.8 million
- North Carolina, $8.4 million
- Ohio, $6.7 million
- Georgia, $6.6 million
- Washington, $6.0 million
- Oregon, $5.9 million
Potential Loss by State
City Foreclosure Risk Assessment
Tourism-heavy cities with high per-capita exposure, recent declines, state-level stress, and large hotel stock screen as higher foreclosure risk.
Method Inputs:
- Visitors per 1,000 residents
- 2024 vs 2023 change
- State missing overseas spending
- Hotel reference counts
Component Weights:
- Exposure: 50%
- 2024 to 2023 change: 31.25%
- State stress: 12.5%
- Hotels: 6.25%
Top Risk Cities
Countries Driving Visitor Declines
A concentrated drop from Canada and several major long-haul markets drives much of the volume decline. July was the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines for Canadian arrivals.
Top Absolute Declines (July 2025 vs July 2024)
- Canada, -614,928 arrivals
- Germany, -28,091
- China PRC, -23,087
- Denmark, -12,398
- India, -10,896
Tourism Visas by Country/Region
The contraction in U.S. international tourism during the Summer 2025 highlights both immediate revenue risks and longer-term credit concerns for tourism-dependent cities and states. Substantial declines in visitor volume—particularly from major feeder markets such as Canada—translated into broad-based financial losses. Some states are facing tens or even hundreds of millions in missing overseas spending. Urban centers with the highest per-capita travel exposure, recent declines in arrivals, and large hotel inventories are most vulnerable to credit stress and potential foreclosure waves.
Methodology
Data Sources
- International visitor arrivals: U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration I-94 Arrivals Program (https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program)
- City-level international visitor counts and rankings: ITA official data, Conde Nast, and multiple tourism reports (2023 and 2024 estimates)
- Hotel reference counts: Booking.com listings by city (as of 2025)
- State visitor distribution: Proportional allocation based on ITA state-level overseas visitor shares
Spending Assumptions
- Per-visitor spending benchmark: $4,200 per overseas visitor (industry average for international travelers to the U.S.)
- Missing money calculation: (July 2024 visitors minus July 2025 visitors) × $4,200
- State-level estimates: Overseas visitor declines only; excludes Canada and Mexico to isolate long-haul market impact
City Foreclosure Risk Score Construction
Four components scaled 0 to 1 using min-max normalization:
- Tourism exposure: International visitors per 1,000 residents (higher equals higher risk)
- Recent change: Negative of 2024 vs 2023 percent change (decline equals higher risk)
- State stress: State-level missing overseas spending in July 2025 (higher loss equals higher risk)
- Hotel exposure: Hotel reference count on Booking.com (more hotels equals higher credit exposure)
Weighted composite:
- 50% exposure
- 31.25% recent change
- 12.5% state stress
- 6.25% hotel exposure
Final score: Scaled 0 to 100 for interpretability
Limitations and Caveats
- Data coverage: I-94 data captures air and sea arrivals; land-border crossings may be underrepresented or reported separately
- City visitor estimates: City visitor counts blend official ITA data with third-party estimates; 2024 figures are preliminary
- Hotel proxy limitations: Hotel counts are proxies for lodging stock and do not reflect ownership structure, occupancy, or debt levels
- Spending variability: Per-visitor spending is an average; actual spending varies by origin market, trip purpose, and length of stay
- Risk score interpretation: Risk scores are relative rankings within the sample; absolute thresholds for foreclosure risk require local market context and credit data
- Temporal scope: Analysis covers July 2025 only; seasonal patterns and multi-month trends are not captured
