America’s major financial districts are showing signs of relief from high vacancy and slow leasing, but the pressure is far from gone. 

The Kaplan Group’s 2026 update looks at the same 19-city sample used in our 2024 and 2025 studies to show which downtown office markets are leasing faster, and where vacancy may still add pressure on refinancing or distressed sales.

Since our first office foreclosure report in 2024, we have followed how financial district stress has changed over time. The earlier studies showed that office distress is not spread evenly across the country. It tends to cluster in places where empty space lasts longer and leasing stays slow, which can put real pressure on property income, refinancing, and sale prices. By using the same three measures as before, days on market, vacancy, and vacancy growth, this ranking shows which financial districts are still most exposed to foreclosure risk and which ones are starting to recover.

Key Takeaways

• Average days on market rose slightly, from 219 days in 2025 to 227 days in 2026. The median fell from 180 to 135 days, which shows that a few very slow markets are pushing up the average.
• For 2026, the low-risk leaders were Hartford (Rank 1), Miami (Rank 2), and Stamford (Rank 3).
• The highest-risk markets were Houston (Rank 19), Chicago (Rank 18), and Denver (Rank 17)

Financial Districts Risk Ranking and Score

A financial district is a city center filled with banks, insurers, investment firms, professional services companies, and large office properties. Because these districts often include big and older office buildings, long vacancies can strain income, debt service, refinancing, and property values.

Leasing times vary widely across the 19 districts. Houston has the longest median days on market at 894 days. Salt Lake City follows at 543, then Chicago at 489, New Orleans at 438, and Des Moines at 415. At the other end, Hartford, Miami, and Stamford each post 52 days, while San Francisco records 53 and Atlanta 56. The nationwide median DOM is 182 days.

This risk score uses the same method as the 2025 study. Each city is scored on normalized days on market, vacancy rate, and vacancy-rate growth. Higher scores mean office space is harder to lease and the risk of distress, refinancing pressure, or a forced sale is higher.

Top Five — Lower Risk

1. Hartford — risk score 0.06; 52 DOM; 9.8% vacancy; -10.9% vacancy growth.
2. Miami — risk score 0.07; 52 DOM; 8.3% vacancy; -5.7% vacancy growth.
3. Stamford — risk score 0.20; 52 DOM; 13.5% vacancy; -8.8% vacancy growth.
4. Charlotte — risk score 0.21; 65 DOM; 13.2% vacancy; -7.7% vacancy growth.
5. New York — risk score 0.23; 80 DOM; 12.8% vacancy; -5.2% vacancy growth.

Bottom Five — Higher Risk

19. Houston — risk score 0.85; 894 DOM; 19.6% vacancy; -2.0% vacancy growth.
20. Chicago — risk score 0.58; 489 DOM; 16.9% vacancy; -1.7% vacancy growth.
21. Denver — risk score 0.47; 154 DOM; 18.1% vacancy; -0.5% vacancy growth.
22. Salt Lake City — risk score 0.47; 543 DOM; 11.6% vacancy; +0.9% vacancy growth.
23. Los Angeles — risk score 0.46; 191 DOM; 16.6% vacancy; +1.2% vacancy growth.

City Spotlights

• Hartford ranks first for low risk. Its 52-day median marketing period is among the shortest in the study, and vacancy fell from 11.0% to 9.8%.
• Miami combines a 52-day marketing period with the second-lowest vacancy rate in the sample at 8.3%. Vacancy also fell 5.7% year over year.
• Stamford moved up six spots to rank third. Its short marketing period and 8.8% drop in vacancy helped offset a still-midrange 13.5% vacancy rate.
• Des Moines posted the biggest jump, moving from 15th to 6th. Its 415-day marketing period is still long, but vacancy fell from 10.5% to 9.4%.
• San Francisco moved up from 18th to 13th. Vacancy fell from 22.8% to 20.7%, and its median marketing period was only 53 days. Even so, it still has the highest vacancy rate in the study.
• Salt Lake City fell from 7th to 16th. Its 543-day median marketing period is the second-longest in the sample, and vacancy edged up to 11.6%.
• Chicago remains a high-risk market at rank 18. Its 489-day marketing period and 16.9% vacancy rate outweigh the modest improvement in vacancy.
• Houston remains the highest-risk financial district. Vacancy improved slightly to 19.6%, but the 894-day median marketing period is far higher than any other city and drives its 0.85 risk score.

2025 vs. 2026 Comparison

Liquidity became more uneven. Average DOM rose 3.3%, from 219 to 227 days, but median DOM fell 25.0%, from 180 to 135 days. Houston, Salt Lake City, Chicago, New Orleans, and Des Moines account for much of the gap between the average and median.

Vacancy improved overall. The average vacancy rate fell 0.4 percentage points, from 14.1% to 13.7%. Fourteen of the 19 metros recorded flat or lower vacancy, while Jacksonville, Detroit, Boston, Los Angeles, and Salt Lake City increased.

The 2026 results show a market that is improving in some places, but still uneven overall. Vacancy edged lower, and many metros posted flat or better conditions. Still, a few markets continue to weigh on the sector with very long leasing times and high vacancy.

Taken together, the three studies point to the same pattern. Office foreclosure risk is not driven by national trends alone. It rises where weak occupancy, slow leasing, and persistent vacancy all appear in the same district. In 2026, Houston, Chicago, and Denver sit at the top of that risk profile, while Hartford, Miami, and Stamford remain the most resilient. As the office market moves through a longer adjustment period, those differences will likely matter even more for lenders, owners, and investors watching distress risk across major financial centers.

Data by Financial District

Methodology

Data Sources

• Crexi: Provided listing-level Days on Market (DOM) data.
• NAR: Supplied vacancy rates and year-over-year vacancy growth figures.

Scoring Approach

Each risk factor is normalized across the 19-city sample using min–max scaling. The lowest observed value receives 0 and the highest receives 1. Vacancy growth is calculated as the percentage change between the 2025 Q2 and 2026 Q2 vacancy rates.

The composite score uses the same weights as the 2025 study:

• 40% — Median Days on Market
• 40% — Vacancy Rate
• 20% — Vacancy Rate Growth

Lower scores indicate lower risk. Rank 1 is the lowest-risk district and rank 19 is the highest-risk district.

Important Interpretation Note

This index is a comparative market-risk indicator, not a prediction that a specific building or loan will default or enter foreclosure. Property-level outcomes depend on leverage, maturity dates, tenant quality, lease rollover, building condition, ownership strategy, and local submarket conditions.