U.S. business debt entered 2026 under sustained pressure, not a single crisis moment. The Kaplan Group analyzed key economic signals to show how tighter credit, higher‑for‑longer interest costs, and tariff‑driven price shocks are reshaping the risk landscape for American companies. Our full State of U.S. Business Debt 2026 report provides detailed findings and charts.
Key Takeaways:
- The Fed’s shift from a 5.25% peak policy rate in 2023 to the mid‑3% range by late 2025 offers only partial relief, as many borrowers are refinancing into structurally higher-for-longer debt costs than the 2010s.
- A 342% jump in effective tariff rates (2.2% → 9.75%) generated $80.3 billion in new costs by July 2025, creating acute working capital strain in import-dependent sectors.
- Companies outsourcing over half of their 90+ day invoices are 3.8 times more likely to achieve 60%+ recovery rates, highlighting the critical importance of early, proactive collections and technology adoption.
What’s included:
- Credit is tight and debt is more expensive
- Tariffs and higher costs are squeezing margins
- Bankruptcies and defaults are rising, but unevenly
- Small business and CRE remain key risk zones
- Collections speed and strategy separate winners from losers
- Tariff‑exposed, import‑heavy sectors face elevated payment risk
- State and metro “hot spots” for small business defaults
- Benchmarks for AR aging, recovery odds, and write‑off risk
- Survey insights on outsourcing, automation, and collections tech
- Clear 2026 outlook, plus full methodology and data sources
Bottom line for 2026
Risk remains high, and improvement in financing conditions is likely to be slow and uneven. Outcomes will depend on sector, geography, and how aggressively companies manage cash, debt, and collections. Businesses that align capital structure, data‑driven risk monitoring, and strong collections practices will be best positioned to succeed in 2026.
