In 2025, U.S. goods trade expanded in both directions, with exports and imports growing compared with 2024, but imports rising more than exports. The annual goods deficit is slightly wider than the year before. A new report by The Kaplan Group examines when this shift happened, and which partners and product groups drove it.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. goods exports grew by $118 billion between 2024 and 2025, and imports grew even more, by $143 billion.
- The annual goods deficit grew from -$1,215 billion to -$1,240 billion.
- March alone saw the monthly goods deficit worsen by $71 billion year over year, while October improved by $41 billion.
- The largest balance hits were in manufactured and machinery‑related categories such as office machines (-$136 billion) and manufactured goods (-$109 billion), where imports surged much faster than exports.
What changed in the overall U.S. goods trade in 2025?
Both U.S. exports and imports increased in 2025, and the goods deficit ended slightly wider than in 2024. But the monthly data show that this deterioration didn’t happen evenly over time. Instead, a few months saw sharp import surges that outweighed steady export growth.
March was the most striking example. Compared with March 2024, exports rose by $12.4 billion, while imports jumped by $83.5 billion, widening the monthly deficit by $71.1 billion year over year. October told the opposite story: exports climbed by $25.8 billion and imports actually fell by $15 billion, improving the monthly balance by $40.8 billion.
This uneven pattern shows that the 2025 widening was import‑led and irregular, not a steady, month‑by‑month decline.
Where did the trade balance improve?
We calculated how each U.S. trading partner’s balance changed from 2024 to 2025. For every country, we looked at how exports and imports shifted to find the balance change.
A positive balance change means the U.S. trade position improved — it either sold more, bought less, or both. A negative balance change means the balance worsened because imports grew faster than exports.
The U.S. goods balance improved most sharply with a handful of key partners, led overwhelmingly by China at +$93.4 billion — more than four times larger than the next-biggest improvement. In each case, the improvement reflects some combination of export growth and import restraint on the bilateral level. The U.S. either sold more into those markets, bought less from them, or both.
Top 10 bilateral balance improvements (2025 vs. 2024):
- China (+$93.4B)
- United Kingdom (+$20.9B)
- European Union (+$17.1B)
- Canada (+$15.5B)
- Italy (+$13.2B)
- Germany (+$11.6B)
- South Korea (+$9.6B)
- Brazil (+$7.7B)
- Hong Kong (+$6.6B)
- Netherlands (+$6.5B)
Bottom 10 bilateral balance deteriorations (2025 vs. 2024):
- Taiwan (−$73B)
- Vietnam (−$54.7B)
- Ireland (−$27.7B)
- Thailand (−$26.4B)
- Mexico (−$25.4B)
- Australia (−$13.3B)
- India (−$12.4B)
- Malaysia (−$5.9B)
- Indonesia (−$5.8B)
- Philippines (−$3.7B)
Which commodity groups widened the deficit the most?
To understand what sits behind the macro movement, we compare 2024 to 2025 for each principal commodity grouping using three simple metrics:
For each product group, we look at how exports and imports changed from 2024 to 2025.
- Export change = exports in 2025 minus exports in 2024
- Import change = imports in 2025 minus imports in 2024
- Balance change = export change minus import change
If the balance change is negative, it means the trade balance got worse — imports increased more than exports.
The largest balance deteriorations in the principal commodities table are concentrated in manufactured and machinery‑related groupings:
- Office machines saw the worst balance change, with the deficit widening by $135.9 billion as imports jumped far faster than exports.
- Manufactured goods also deteriorated sharply, with the trade balance worsening by $108.7 billion on relatively modest export growth.
- Machinery and transport equipment recorded a large deficit increase of $84.0 billion, again driven by much faster import growth than export growth.
- Miscellaneous manufactured articles (smaller category) saw the balance fall by $34.5 billion, with imports rising more than four times the export gain.
- Medicinal and pharmaceutical products showed a similar pattern, with the balance worsening by $33.8 billion as imports outpaced exports.
- Chemicals and related products had a balance decline of $23.6 billion, reflecting a sizable rise in imports relative to exports.
- Miscellaneous manufactured articles (broader category) saw the balance deteriorate by $23.9 billion despite higher exports.
- Telecommunications equipment registered a balance decline of $20.5 billion, as imports increased by almost seven times the export gain.
- Special transactions worsened the balance by $14.6 billion, driven entirely by higher imports while exports were flat.
- Nonferrous metals saw the balance deteriorate by $13.1 billion, with imports again rising much faster than exports.
In each of these categories, exports did grow, but imports grew far more, which is why the balance moves sharply negative even in areas where outbound shipments improved. In plain terms, the deterioration is not about the U.S. suddenly selling less machinery or manufactured goods abroad; it is about buying significantly more of those products from overseas than before.
Product‑level exports, imports, and balance changes, 2024–2025
Taken together, the exhibit‑based evidence points to three simple trade‑only conclusions for 2025. First, overall goods trade was stronger in volume terms, with both exports and imports higher than in 2024. Second, the goods deficit widened modestly because import growth outpaced export growth, and that widening was concentrated in specific months rather than spread evenly across the calendar. Third, the commodity breakdown shows that the slippage in the balance is heavily concentrated in manufactured, machinery, and related categories, where import growth was particularly strong relative to export growth.
Methodology
This analysis uses publicly available U.S. Census Bureau data on goods exports and imports from the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” releases for 2024 and 2025. All figures refer to goods trade only.
For each period (annual, monthly, or by product group), the goods balance is calculated as:
- Balance = Exports − Imports
- Negative balance = deficit
- Positive balance = surplus
To compare 2025 with 2024, we use simple year‑over‑year changes:
- Export change = Exports 2025 − Exports 2024
- Import change = Imports 2025 − Imports 2024
- Balance change = Balance 2025 − Balance 2024
Because Balance = Exports − Imports, a negative balance change means the trade balance worsened, usually because imports grew faster than exports.
We apply the same calculations at three levels:
- Annual totals to describe the headline change in the overall deficit
- Monthly data to identify which months drove most of the movement
- Principal commodity groups to see which product categories contributed most to the change in the balance
The results are descriptive and are not adjusted for inflation, exchange rates, or services trade.
